Society of Actuaries (SOA) PA Practice Exam

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What does classification error measure in decision tree analysis?

  1. The maximum probability across all classes

  2. The rate of false positives only

  3. The overall failure rate of predictions

  4. The minimum number of observations required to split

The correct answer is: The overall failure rate of predictions

Classification error in decision tree analysis measures the overall failure rate of predictions. This metric helps assess how accurately the model is predicting the class labels for a given dataset. It quantifies the proportion of instances that are incorrectly classified compared to the total number of instances. In the context of decision trees, classification error considers both false positives and false negatives, giving a comprehensive view of the model's performance. This is essential for understanding the effectiveness of the decision-making process within the tree. The other options touch on different aspects but do not capture the full essence of classification error. For example, focusing solely on maximum probabilities or just false positives would not provide a complete picture of the model's accuracy. Additionally, minimum observation requirements relate to the structural aspects of tree construction rather than the performance evaluation indicated by classification error.

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